Déjà vu with data growth

We have been here before. Data traffic already exceeds voice on many mobile networks. And it is predicted to increase 1000-fold within a decade as wireless becomes the world’s primary method of Internet access. A massive surge in fixed network traffic started approximately 15 years ago. Data surpassed and then dwarfed voice as Internet access and IP services drove exponential growth.

Major fiber investments around the millennium provided copious amounts of cheap bandwidth for consumers. Unfortunately, overinvestment followed by bankruptcies and significant retrenchment proved to be a painful experience for many network service providers, their vendor-financed suppliers and other investors. The question is: Will these mistakes be repeated in the bonanza to turn 3 billion mobile voice and text users into mobile broadband consumers on Long Term Evolution (LTE) and 4G networks?

Mobile broadband economics

To help ensure profitable growth, mobile operators are revamping their business models. This will include charging on the basis of speeds, data volumes, service levels and advanced services which can be combined with the raw connectivity.

In the fixed telecoms boom of the 1990s, aggressive pricing on highly commoditized connectivity services and vendor financing exposed many operators and their suppliers to significant losses. Today, operators and technology vendors must be careful to ensure services are more differentiated and expenditures are better matched to their revenues.

Some players triumphed through the fixed Internet access revolution. These included incumbent local phone companies, leading DSL equipment suppliers, and many web companies including Amazon.com and Google. But there were also significant financial casualties such as some national backbone and international communications service providers, fiber optic transmission equipment manufacturers and many ISPs. The challenge will be to figure out which strategies will be required to capitalize upon the mobile broadband revolution while avoiding previous mistakes.

Old and new challenges

The old 3G problem was that nobody used it much. At first, flat-rate unlimited data pricing made great sense in developed nations where a sizable segment of price-insensitive users were encouraged to use it while providing them comfort that the monthly expenditure was fixed. The arrangement was also simple for operators with no need for metering or complex billing and no shortage of network capacity. That all changed a few years ago when users – of smartphones as well as data cards and dongles – started using 3G networks a lot.

The relatively new 3G problem and the upcoming 4G challenge is that escalating demand must be economically balanced with supply. This is a multi-faceted puzzle that must use pricing to temper demand and associated network costs. It’s closing time for the one-size-fits-all, all-you-can-eat pricing model because it:

• Fails to extract higher expenditures from those who are willing to pay more
• Excludes price-sensitive users who would be willing to pay lower prices for limited usage or reduced performance
• Subjects operators to extremely high usage and at great cost from a small proportion of customers

Figure 1 illustrates how a single flat rate limits revenues by restricting pricing opportunities with those people who are willing to pay more and restricts subscriber uptake with those who are only willing to pay less.

Figure 1: Flat-rate pricing limits revenues and restricts subscriber uptake

The desire to boost revenues while limiting total costs has made flat-rate pricing with unlimited usage unworkable in mobile except on new networks with excess capacity where the lure of this pricing model can accelerate subscriber acquisition. Unfortunately, speeds on parts of these networks soon plummet due to congestion. Operators carry a heavy burden increasing mobile broadband capacity because costs with spectrum, radio access, backhaul, and core network technologies are significantly higher per gigabyte transported than on fixed networks with fiber and copper access lines.

Furthermore, the vast majority of mobile subscribers worldwide have prepaid, pay-as-you-go pricing for voice and text. With so many of these users in cash-based economies and without operator billing relationships or credit ratings, they will also be best suited and most amenable to prepaid and usage-based arrangements for data.

New mobile business models from many operators worldwide include tiered service pricing on the basis of access speeds, volumes of data and session lengths with prepaid and postpaid charging. Operators are also seeking to enrich services with improved quality of service (QoS), quality of experience (QoE), location-based capabilities and more.

Footing the bill

Bringing broadband IP and Internet access to the world’s masses is a very costly undertaking no matter which technology is used. Wireless broadband upgrades from 2G to 3G or 4G are highly suited to places where there are no landlines including some remote regions in developed nations.

Europe’s millennial 3G licensing also caused an economic shock to the telecoms sector that should not be repeated. Taxing mobile operators with high spectrum costs in conventional auctions extracts excessive capital from the sector and impairs investment for the most expensive to reach places and those consumers who have the least to spend.

The legacy of the over investment and excessively competitive pricing in long-haul, fiber-based communications capacity a decade ago is that some assets were able to be purchased after the bust for a small percentage of original costs. In conjunction with copper landlines funded by preceding decades of monopoly profits, this has provided affordable broadband Internet access to those who happen to live in the right places, but what about everybody else?

Mobile broadband infrastructure is very costly, though not as expensive as pulling fiber to rural and remote communities everywhere. The danger is that mobile network expansion will be curtailed if spectrum is taxed too highly in auction fees. Licensing with more significant coverage and service level obligations in conjunction with less costly spectrum would extend coverage and capacity investment much further.

Bridging the digital divide

Existing fixed broadband Internet users who have mobile lifestyles are the most obvious early adopters for mobile broadband on phones, laptop PCs and other devices. However, their demands could ultimately be exceeded by the billions who today have limited or no Internet access and to whom fixed Internet access with fiber or copper connections are not economical. Mobile broadband is always on and always with you – a weekly commute to an Internet café or a library visit is a far cry from the pervasive Internet experience provided with personal mobile devices. For these people, mobile broadband will become the predominant or only means of Internet access.

Compared to wireline, wireless remains the most economical option for voice and Internet access outside of densely populated areas and for approximately half of the world’s population. Over the last 15 years the Internet was brought to many who already had landline phones, by first using dial-up and then through DSL over existing copper access lines connected to newly built fiber-optic backbones. Meanwhile, remote regions and developing nations were catching up on voice services with 2G cellular-based access.

Cellular devices are now also more accessible and most suitable for the mobile lifestyles and literacy levels of many who spend most of their time outside of a home or office. Looking ahead, LTE will bridge the digital divide. Wireless networks will migrate to 3G and 4G including next-generation IP technologies and will bring mobile broadband Internet to billions of people who have cellphones but no fixed access.

Today only 59% of the world’s population uses mobile phones. That means nearly 3 billion people are excluded from the mobile economy. This number is far too large to be a problem; it has to be an opportunity.

A 10% increase in mobile penetration leads to a 1% increase in low to medium income GDP. That means if we put mobile phones in people’s hands, we have an opportunity to add approximately US$160 billion to the global economy. But is that it, or can we add more?

According to a model developed by Bell Labs and the World Economic Forum, with the right combination of actions and investment, we can accelerate the impact of mobility by as much as 36%, measured in GDP.

The model predicts how mobile policies, applications, technology, and economics can impact the future. The team found that while mobile broadband is a good thing for economic and social growth when we combine it with the right applications it gets even better.

Driving adoption

Mobile networks provide access to people, markets and services. They provide a means to connect more people to the growing digital economy. This is especially important to developing countries and rural areas.

Developing countries now comprise 86% of the world’s population, and over half the people in those nations are living in rural environments. Mobile access in these areas is still far behind adoption in developed regions.

People in emerging markets are only half as likely to have access to mobile communications as the residents of developed countries. And fewer than 10% have Internet access, far below the global average of 23%.

If we can provide more people with mobile access, we can grow economies and improve lives. Numerous studies have demonstrated the impact of mobile penetration on GDP growth.

Brought down to an individual level, GDP per capita is an indicator of standard of living. GDP is used along with data on life expectancy and education to calculate Human Development Index scores. Mobility affects GDP and can be a tool to drive social benefits such as education and healthcare into underserved areas.

But accessibility can be a challenge because the economics for serving rural and low-income populations are tough. As a result more countries such as – Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Mexico and New Zealand – are starting to drive digital economy agendas. These initiatives call for substantial investments in infrastructure. Like any investor, nations want to maximize their return.

According to the World Economic Forum and Bell Labs, 3 main factors will drive the largest returns.

1. Rethinking infrastructure. With current traffic and technology adoption patterns, our team predicts many urban networks will soon be overloaded. Conversely, many rural areas are underserved. Mobile access today is not ubiquitous. To achieve ubiquity quickly, we need to look at new business and green technology models that lower costs and accelerate universality.
2. Scaling relevant applications. We need broad deployment for certain mobile applications. One of the most telling aspects of the study is how applications can accelerate economic and social growth. We’ve seen it in Kenya with mobile payments. These sorts of applications have real social benefits and we need to find ways to scale them more quickly. The issue here is not one of innovation – it’s about broad deployment.
3. Developing a near-zero cost mobile device and services that are less than 5% of income. This is not new. If we want to extend mobile services to lower income communities we need to address this. Our model shows pricing has a major impact on mobile related growth. Tackling this target may seem like an impossible task, but we need to set the bar.

Revisiting infrastructure investments

The economics of traditional business models are being challenged. Organizations and governments that want to drive economic growth will need to rethink their approach to infrastructure. They will need to be creative to grow capacity and extend reach.

In rural areas, coverage will be the major concern. Developing a business model that supports cost-effective mobile service delivery will require innovative thinking and a partner ecosystem. Some rural settings do not have access to electricity, but we no longer need to choose between delivering electricity or communications infrastructure. With new alternative energy solutions, electricity and mobile can now arrive hand in hand.

In urban areas, providers will deal with staggering traffic demands. Bell Labs predicts the average number of devices per square kilometer will grow from 400 in 2011, to 12,800 in 2015. That increase in the number of users will generate a more than 30-fold increase in traffic. Scalability will be critical to ensure that networks can respond to the load and provide coverage to meet the growth.

Applications must be relevant and scalable

Countries that want to maximize growth should encourage mobile applications that support basic human needs. The more relevant the application, the more incentive people have to adopt the technology. One of the most interesting findings from the study was that not just one, but rather a suite of applications can drive growth much faster than select single applications (Figure 1). Research substantiates that technology adoption happens at a much faster rate when applications are bundled together and appeal to a large portion of the population. Education, healthcare and banking applications are important examples, but they must be simple and locally relevant. Additionally, mobile applications that target the specific needs of women in developing countries will help bridge the gender gap and address this underserved market.

Figure 1: Mobile adoption accelerates when applications are bundled and have mass appeal

Affordability is key

The higher earning segment of the population isn’t the focus here. For ubiquitous access to become a reality, affordability at the lower income level must be addressed. In developing markets, device costs combined with a monthly service charge can be a huge barrier for many. Accelerating the adoption of mobile broadband to make communication services available to all socio-economic levels means they must be affordable. When the price of the mobile solution falls below 5% of the household expenses, mobile adoption becomes much more realistic (Figure 2). However, there are a number of factors that need to come together to make this happen:

• Technology vendors need to develop innovative network architectures requiring very low capital and operating expenses
• Device manufacturers and content providers must develop extremely low-cost, simple interface devices with Lighthouse applications to drive uptake
• Operators must work together with public and private sector organizations to create low-cost services for low-income households
• Government agencies need to implement tax incentives and policies that will drive economic growth

Figure 2: Affordability is key to mobile adoption

The reality is, without a strategy that will put broadband within the reach of the low-income population, no policy will work – even for countries with a mobile broadband agenda. All of the players identified above must participate to create a feasible ecosystem to drive adoption.

A common goal for the common good

Countries that develop a mobile broadband strategy can optimize growth. But they need the right combination of infrastructure, applications and economics. According to our model, countries can drive GDP growth as much as 36% higher than an access-only approach. Simply put, when people have infrastructure and applications at an affordable price, mobile use will grow along with a country’s digital economy and its people.

“Mike, when my consumer walks into a supermarket, I’ve got 90 seconds to convince them to purchase my cold/flu product over my competitors”, explained an overwhelmed pharma client, “they’re affluent and armed with smart phones and I know how to capture their attention before and after they arrive, but how in those 90 seconds how can I grab their attention at retail? Do I need another iPhone app?”

Sound familiar? A common response from marketers unsure of how to reach consumers generally defaults to an iPhone app solution (as of January 2011 there are over 400,000). That’s not to say that an iPhone app isn’t the right answer based on certain business objectives but here are 3 main items this client hadn’t yet considered in marketing specifically at point-of-sale:

1. Download time

Filling most or all of the 90 seconds that our sick consumer (or a “sick support” group member making the purchase) is spending on a product decision with download time is time wasted. You may contend, “Well, even if we don’t sway or reinforce our desired decision, at least we’re loaded on that phone for later use.” From a CRM standpoint in order to drive compliance (in the case of pharma) and maintain dialogue when they leave the store there is great worth in that statement. But as in dating, you’ve got to talk to the opposite sex before they’ll consider marrying you.

2. Unmet needs

Put yourself in the consumer’s shoes. You’re the sick consumer with bloodshot eyes viewing row upon row of competing over-the-counter (OTC) remedies. What are some unmet needs the brand could fulfill using mobile technology?

“I need to save money”: Incentivizing purchase with mobile coupons (which depending on the retailer can be tricky from a redemption standpoint).

“I need to know how products compare”: an SMS-to-mobile website that serves side-by-side product comparisons (how this works: Users view an aisle hang tag with the call-to-action of texting “FLU” to 55555 and receiving a link which launches the mobile site).

“I need you to listen to my symptoms first, then recommend a product“: Often consumers suffer “decision paralysis” when trying to match symptoms to the most appropriate brand or even amongst the brands own product line.

“This one’s good for fever and cough, but this one’s good for flu and runny nose. But what about chills and fatigue?”

When this takes place we immediately start looking at ways to delegate our decision. Mobile’s inputting, interactive and intuitive features can create a seamless way for a device to make decisions for us. This is when mobile becomes an extension of our brain.

Here’s an example to illustrate:

If you’ve seen Robitussin’s latest “Relief Finder” mobile campaign featured in ads, you can see how this particular consumer need is conceptually met. Before even a mention of product information, a consumer first inputs each symptom that in turn offers the most effective remedy amongst Robitussin’s product line. It’s turnkey with an approachable, straightforward user interface. By eliminating confusion, the path to purchase is smoothly paved from the get-go.

3. Social Support

Taken from the lyrics of Amos Lee, “Who do you call to ease your pain?” Who do you contact when you’re sick?  What duty does each in your own “sick support” contact list serve? Perhaps Mom offers recommendations on what to eat, a roommate or spouse are in charge of movie rentals and your entire Facebook network, well, they just need to know. With mobiles primary function being a social connector what platforms or reward systems can brands provide that will add consumer value but remain just as seamless as a phone call, text or a status update?

A sickly consumer doesn’t wish to add social guilt to their current physical state, which can come with having to ask for support. So, there’s opportunity for a brand not only to fulfill the consumer’s needs (as discussed previous) but also now to reward the support group. Consequently you’ve now identified who the real-time influencers of purchasing decisions are. How can we keep them as part of the ongoing dialogue once the consumer checks-out as well?

My recommendation to get started: Don’t deliberate technology just yet. Break down your consumer into “wireless” behavioral segments including needs, wants and desires while in-store. Extract from these insights how your brand’s strategy can be inserted to drive them from consideration to checkout. The technology to support your mobile idea is likely available, and if not, develop it and become the front-runner. And before you pharmaceutical brands revert to, “it’s only going to get the kibosh” from regulatory (which I’ve experienced) don’t allow that outlook to creep in before exploring what’s possible.

Your Mobile Strategy should not be about the technology. Don’t let the architects in the room pull you down the solutioning trap before it is time. Understand your end users first.

“Having a mobile strategy will be a key differentiator for enterprises and brands alike to maintain and build their customer base,” said Hetal Pandya, director of product management at Nuance, Sunnyvale, CA.

“Customers like to solve their own problems without having to speak with someone,” she said. “It is about convenience and consistent customer experience.

“Ensuring that they have figured out how their consumers will consistently discover their mobile service is key to their ROI.”

We knew that… you knew that.

A solid Mobile Strategy actually places more onus on the customer to take care of themselves. It is almost like we are treating our customers like grown ups. They can handle it…. go ahead, give them more responsibility.

But serve and service them well when needed.